This market will resolve to YES if: 
After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role, 
the selected replacement has taken power, and
the individual selected identifies as female.

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

town biden

Honourary

TheSkeward

Ben Rog-Wilhelm

Faul Sname

Zygohistomorphic

marthinwurer

blank

Rick

FlushedTable

I am the current administrator of this Discord server. I will choose the answer based on which user currently has the 'Administrator' role or has been officially announced as the successor, not based on the precise permission scheme - ie, if an administration bot had Administrator access, this would not factor into my choice, and if I still held the server owner status during a probationary period after I'd announced and handed the role over to another user, I would choose that user.

Resolves true if Manifold Markets (or some affiliated company or organization) releases a crypto token on mainnet by April 1, 2022.
#ManifoldMarkets #crypto

This market resolves to "Yes" if we end up dating (using the words relationship, partner, or 'we are dating') before June 1. So, a few tentative get-to-know-you hangouts wouldn't count. She's a bit cooler than me, a bit kinder, and a bit older.

Feb 14, 12:54pm: More details: she is 31, I'm 27 (m). We attend the same school as grad students.

Feb 14, 12:54pm: Update: The market will be voided if she finds out about it.

Feb 14, 1:35pm: I am currently obsessed with her

Feb 14, 2:52pm: She is on a Valentine's date with another guy today...

Feb 14, 2:47pm: ... But we are going on a hike on Wednesday

Feb 14, 3:44pm: correct timestamp for the last comment

Feb 14, 6:08pm: she's been slow to respond to my last few messages (6+ hours), but each have been enthusiastic with at least 1 emoji

Feb 14, 6:08pm: her date is probably starting right around now

Feb 14, 7:38pm: we both eat pizza along the outer edge

Feb 15, 7:07am: pundits predict a volatile day of mid market stress eating

Feb 15, 1:48pm: no messages exchanged today

Feb 15, 5:53pm: Broke the silence with a message. Will probably regret that later.

Feb 15, 5:54pm: response includes the phrase "I'm so confused."

Feb 16, 8:25am: we met a few months ago when I was in a relationship. Apparently she had been crushing on me

Feb 16, 1:12pm: investors anxiously await results of imminent hike + talk

Feb 16, 3:05pm: she let me know that she has actually been seeing the Valentines guy for a while off and on. It was going too quickly after we first met so she broke it off, and now they are back together. That appears to be that.

Feb 16, 3:30pm: we agreed that the problem is timing and she alluded to something happening down the road if it didn't work out with her guy. So I won't close the market, but I can't say it's looking good.

Feb 16, 6:29pm: I feel

Feb 23, 9:18am: sent her a last ditch love-email. That can't be a good sign

Feb 23, 7:09pm: a different girl who I was really into a few months ago, one of the most attractive, smart, and kind people I know, confessed feelings for me to my sister. A few weeks ago I would have felt so much excitement, but right now only one person is on my mind

Feb 24, 12:19pm: She responded to my email with a very thoughtful and kind let-down. So I'm on to other pastures.

Feb 24, 6:04pm: We texted for most of today. I'm not going to pursue her, but I'm also not going to resolve the market until June. The world works in mysterious ways!

To date ~14,000 people have been killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with just over 5,000 people dying (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).

There is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. Will this year be at least as deadly as 2014? #RussiaUkraine #War

Mar 2, 2:19pm: Waiting for official confirmation to resolve

This resolves to "YES" if regular season games are cancelled due to the ongoing MLB lockout or related labor strife (e.g. the players go on strike).

Ukraine claims to have shot down two Russian IL-7640 transport planes (see eg https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/two-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-around-kyiv-ukraine-says).
So far I found "US officials" confirming this (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-officials-say-2-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-over-ukraine/) but so far I haven't seen any independent confirmations besides that.

After market close on March 9, I'll look for news and have a discussion with traders and friends. After that, if I believe that Ukraine shot down two Russian IL-76 transport planes on or before Feb 25, I'll resolve YES, if I'm unsure I'll resolve N/A, and otherwise I'll resolve NO. I won't put in a large amount of effort, so if you want to lower the chance of an N/A, please tell me where the confirmations/disconfirmations are!
(I'll put in a larger amount of effort if this question sees a lot of activity, but I'll still aim to resolve shortly after March 9, rather than wait for more info.)

If the situation is very clear before March 9, I'll resolve this early.

Edge cases I can think of rn:
- If the planes just crashed on their own, it's still YES as long as it happened in Ukrainian airspace
- If the planes were misidentified, I'll resolve YES if the real planes were as big and important as IL-76s.

Feb 26, 9:38pm: @Conner Gagliano, can you tell me where you saw the US Department of Defense confirmed this? The only thing I can find so far is https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2947562/senior-defense-official-holds-an-off-camera-press-briefing/ which very much does not confirm it.
(To be clear, if the US Department of Defense confirms is, that's not an instant YES, I would first ask around to get a general sense of whether US Department is generally truthful even in situations where false propaganda would be very effective.)

Feb 26, 9:51pm: @ConnerGagliano let's see if I can correctly ping you this time...

Mar 1, 10:32pm: @WillWilson thank you for the tweet!
@ConnerGagliano: Sorry for the delay (I was actually about to answer when Will posted their reply!). The relevant part of the of the AP News page you linked appears to be identical to https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/us-officials-say-2-russian-transport-planes-shot-down-over-ukraine/ , which I linked when I created the question. Just seeing this same piece of information again will not make me resolve YES.
To be clear, I don't think "The US Department of Defense" and " two American officials with direct knowledge of conditions on the ground in Ukraine" are equivalent at all. In the press briefing transcript I linked, the DOD official says "On the aircraft, it's - we can't confirm, we can't deny it. And, again, we're going to be careful here about what level of tactical detail that we get into. Because I want to be able to make sure we can do it confidently."

See also https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10080/russian-border-closure-by-april-2022/ . I'll be roughly using their definition for border close: reputable news source reports significant e.g. >2% restriction, e.g. males of conscript age.

Prompted by Alexey Guzey's alarming warning: https://buttondown.email/guzey/archive/4-independent-sources-i-have-say-that-the-russian/

via Google Translate: "For the Russians, the exit will be blocked very soon. First, for men, some military age, then for everyone

Consider going straight to any open country (except Belarus). Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and the list goes on. Now there is still such an opportunity, but it will be blocked quickly and without warning.

If you want or consider it your duty to stay in the Russian Federation, this is your choice. But if you don’t want to live in this, you need to get out immediately, it’s better today

The position of the Russian Federation is much worse than in the Cold War. Complete hell can come suddenly and without warning. As for the economic collapse, it is guaranteed. I can bet on this quite confidently, because the sanctions steamroller has already set off. Western state apparatuses are more mechanistic, and therefore more subject to institutional inertia than the Russian one. It is difficult to move them from their place, but once moved, they go, go, go, and so on for a very long time. Because it is difficult not only to start them, but also to stop them, there is no person who could give such an order

If you want to leave, leave immediately, the sooner the better, to any open country except Belarus. It doesn’t make sense to ask the price for a long time which is better, the main thing is to cross the border, and then we’ll see. Kazakhstan and others are unlikely to block the exit, but the Russian Federation will. If you have not yet decided where and what to do next, you can go to Istanbul - this is the largest hub and from there they fly to almost all countries

As you cross, you can think about further actions. They understandably depend on your finances, skills, network and many related circumstances.

This is a recommendation that I can give to anyone who is thinking about leaving. As for more specific considerations, I'm not ready to make them public yet (subscribers can look here (https://www.patreon.com/posts/63248958)). But unlike all the other sealed texts, I will open this one as soon as I deem it possible.

For those who want to leave but do not know the situation on the ground - here is a list of Russian-language telegram chats in 105 countries of the world. You can read and if something is not clear, clarify the details with those who are already there https://telegra.ph/chat360-10-14"

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9993/europe-to-stop-buying-gas-from-russia/

This market resolves to YES if John Beshir is still in the top 20 users on the Manifold Markets leaderboard, sorted by total profits. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

Mar 8, 8:57pm: I will check the leaderboard at the time indicated in the title of this question. If he drops from the leaderboard and gets back on it, it will still resolve to YES.

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