M$ 59,122 pool

    The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.

    43%
    chance
    M$ 18,280 pool

    Will the linked market fall to less than 15% for at least 12 hours before March 12th Eastern Time?

    5%
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    M$ 17,896 pool

    Who will be the administrator of the AstralCodexTen Discord server on January 1, 2023?

    M$ 10,753 pool

    Will this market have M$20,000 invested by March 11th?

    96%
    chance
    M$ 14,609 pool

    Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

    15%
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    M$ 7,064 pool

    Will Manifold launch a crypto token before April?

    7%
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    M$ 2,864 pool

    Will I get together with the girl I made out with last weekend?

    45%
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    M$ 2,121 pool

    Will 1=1 on January 1st 2023?

    95%
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    M$ 4,087 pool

    Will more than 5,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year?

    98%
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    M$ 883 pool

    Will the 2022 baseball season be shortened by the MLB lockout?

    7%
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    M$ 3,309 pool

    Is it true that Ukraine has shot down two Russian IL-76 transport planes?

    16%
    chance
    M$ 2,136 pool

    Will Russia close their borders before March 11th?

    4%
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    M$ 1,648 pool

    Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?

    51%
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    M$ 1,431 pool

    What should we call the digital currency used to bet on Manifold Markets

    M$ 18,676 pool

    Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022

    26%
    chance
    M$ 960 pool

    Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?

    91%
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    M$ 654 pool

    Will John Beshir still be on the leaderboard on March 20th 2022, 6 PM Eastern Time?

    98%
    chance
    M$ 944 pool

    Will Russia invade Kiev by end of 2022?

    94%
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    M$ 1,459 pool

    Will Manifold Markets implement a dark mode by the ides of March 2022

    8%
    chance
    M$ 883 pool

    Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?

    59%
    chance
    M$ 2,855 pool

    Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.005 by March 25?

    61%
    chance
    M$ 315 pool

    What will inflation be in March?

    M$ 1,687 pool

    What Rotten Tomatoes status will "The Batman" have one week after release?

    M$ 1,192 pool

    Will Ethereum merge to Proof-of-Stake by July?

    21%
    chance
    M$ 11,102 pool

    Will this market have M$10,000 invested by March 10th?

    98%
    chance
    M$ 19,973 pool

    Will Midnight the stray cat allow humans to pet her by April 1st, 2022

    39%
    chance
    M$ 108 pool

    Was it an unpleasant surprise when trades made by market creators became retroactively public?

    82%
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    M$ 6,531 pool

    Will Russia control the majority of the Ukraine by January 1st, 2023?

    34%
    chance
    M$ 2,432 pool

    Will I have lost twenty or more pounds by Apr. 24, 2022?

    46%
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    M$ 1,149 pool

    A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022

    70%
    chance
    M$ 370 pool

    Will Russian stock exchange reopen by March 12th?

    8%
    chance
    M$ 700 pool

    What music suggestion will I enjoy listening to the most while coding this week?

    M$ 919 pool

    Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?

    25%
    chance
    M$ 1,241 pool

    Will Ethereum switch to Proof of Stake before 2023?

    53%
    chance
    M$ 153 pool

    Will my weekly calorie average be at or below my goal for the next four weeks?

    76%
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    M$ 173 pool

    Will Viktor Orbán be the next Prime Minister of Hungary after the 2022 election, held on April 3, 2022?

    73%
    chance
    M$ 270 pool

    Will this market have M$10,000 invested in it before March 31st?

    85%
    chance
    M$ 150 pool

    Will Ron DeSantis be the winner of the next Florida gubernatorial election, to be held on November 8, 2022?

    94%
    chance
    M$ 994 pool

    Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?

    35%
    chance
    M$ 5,366 pool

    Will Manifold's developers agree with me that the dynamic parimutuel cost function should be changed?

    91%
    chance
    M$ 1,432 pool

    Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than or equal to 42% on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT?

    74%
    chance
    M$ 402 pool

    Among current heads of state, who will be the next to die?

    M$ 607 pool

    Will Manifold Markets allow "free comments" by the end of March?

    14%
    chance
    M$ 597 pool

    Will Russia attack another country by July 1st 2022?

    14%
    chance
    M$ 3,471 pool

    Will Vladimir Putin be removed from Power in 2022?

    22%
    chance
    M$ 466 pool

    Will all nuclear power plants in Germany be shut down in 2022?

    62%
    chance
    M$ 377 pool

    How public will Manifold trader identities be in a month?

    M$ 342 pool

    This market will resolve early with probability 50%. Will it resolve early?

    64%
    chance
    M$ 1,062 pool

    Will Manifold Markets require Proof of Humanity by the end of 2022?

    40%
    chance
    M$ 994 pool

    Honourary resolves honorably.

    90%
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    M$ 4,065 pool

    Will the United States cut Russia off from the SWIFT system by 2023?

    82%
    chance
    M$ 531 pool

    Will Ukraine receive additional MiGs in the next week?

    12%
    chance
    M$ 1,720 pool

    Will the GOP control the US House of Representatives in 2023?

    81%
    chance
    M$ 525 pool

    Emmanuel Macron re-elected in 2022

    89%
    chance
    M$ 100 pool

    Will someone outside the top 5 traders be #1 when this market closes?

    10%
    chance
    M$ 511 pool

    Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 20th Eastern Time?

    14%
    chance
    M$ 413 pool

    Will Russia occupy Kyiv as well as at least 70% of internationally recognized Ukrainian territory on April 15th?

    28%
    chance
    M$ 95 pool

    Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 5 years) involving North Korea in 2022?

    44%
    chance
    M$ 543 pool

    Will there be a peace deal between Russia and the Ukraine by March 13, 2022.

    8%
    chance
    M$ 210 pool

    Will I get a positive Cue result for COVID in the next month?

    15%
    chance
    M$ 206 pool

    Will I pass the open book exam in "Theories of theater from the 18th to the 20th century" I participated in yesterday without ever visiting the lecture or learning for it?

    93%
    chance
    M$ 638 pool

    Will any new country become members of NATO in 2022?

    6%
    chance
    M$ 83 pool

    Will Manifold have >=3000 bets placed on any day in March?

    53%
    chance
    M$ 42 pool

    Conditional on REJECTING the Anti-Settings Principle, will Manifold stay on its rocketship trajectory?

    74%
    chance
    M$ 759 pool

    Will, at the end of 2022 western teenagers spend more time in VR then in real live?

    2%
    chance
    M$ 420 pool

    Will the Worldometers Covid counter register 1,000,000 US deaths before March 15?

    56%
    chance
    M$ 77 pool

    W​iļ̨̦̮̰̗̗̥̥̮̲̖̗̭̗̖̖̖̖̖̗̰̱̲̯̣̥̥̄̅̇̈̉̏̀̉̄̀̀̊̏̏̋̌̍̎̎͜͜͜͜͜͡͞͞͡l tһis₂ ma​rket t̲͎̩̱͔́̋̀it​le "be’ hand​led <corre​ctly​​​​​​?‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎ ‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏🙃 '); DROP TABLE Markets;--జ్ఞా&nbsp; ‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏‎‏

    96%
    chance
    M$ 474 pool

    Will Manifold implement either "report" functionality or "markets automatically resolve by X date" functionality to combat "hostage" markets by bad faith actors, sometime on or before May 15th, 2022?

    92%
    chance
    M$ 2,191 pool

    Will Runes be the top-performing archetype in the alchemy portion of the Neon Dynasty Set Championship?

    25%
    chance
    M$ 604 pool

    Will there be a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine?

    22%
    chance
    M$ 73 pool

    Will I find a good pro-crypto response to the "Line Goes Up" video?

    25%
    chance
    M$ 342 pool

    Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2022?

    8%
    chance
    M$ 2,114 pool

    Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022?

    5%
    chance
    M$ 138 pool

    Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

    29%
    chance
    M$ 140 pool

    Will Manifold Markets add non-google sign ups before April 1st?

    16%
    chance
    M$ 674 pool

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy lives on October 1st 2022

    70%
    chance
    M$ 199 pool

    Who will be the Top Creator on Manifold Markets on March 15th?

    M$ 80 pool

    Will the sequel to Zelda: Breath of the Wild be released in 2022?

    80%
    chance
    M$ 588 pool

    30. Will masks still be required on US domestic flights by the end of 2022?

    28%
    chance
    M$ 566 pool

    Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?

    73%
    chance
    M$ 259 pool

    Zelensky will be Time magazine's Man of the Year 2022

    42%
    chance
    M$ 1,322 pool

    26. Will the medical establishment reverse course and officially say that any of Vitamin D, HCQ, or ivermectin is actually effective against COVID by the end of 2022?

    16%
    chance
    M$ 194 pool

    Will I be a regular user of this website in 2022?

    51%
    chance
    M$ 643 pool

    Will Manifold Markets allow you to bet in terms of probabilities instead of M$ amounts before 2022-05-01?

    26%
    chance
    M$ 66 pool

    Will a trans female athlete win an Olympic gold medal in any women's game category in the 2024 games?

    34%
    chance
    M$ 194 pool

    Will Belarus send troops to Ukraine?

    40%
    chance
    M$ 110 pool

    Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by 2025?

    20%
    chance
    M$ 250 pool

    Will the International Congress of Mathematicians 2022 be held in St. Petersburg?

    6%
    chance
    M$ 221 pool

    US Presidency 2024

    M$ 518 pool

    Will Putin get killed by the end of 2022?

    8%
    chance
    M$ 4,202 pool

    Will a nuclear bomb detonate by April 1st 2022?

    3%
    chance
    M$ 444 pool

    Will fighter jets supplied by Poland physically enter Ukraine by 10 March 2022?

    3%
    chance
    M$ 129 pool

    Zuranolone gets FDA approval for some other condition

    62%
    chance
    M$ 1,515 pool

    Will George R.R. Martin publish an ASOIAF book in 2022?

    16%
    chance
    M$ 792 pool

    Mantic will airdrop crypto to early users by June 30, 2022

    53%
    chance
    M$ 984 pool

    Will there be a new COVID variant with an impact greater than Omicron in 2022 or 2023?

    37%
    chance
    M$ 245 pool

    Will the BA.2 variant of Covid cause another worldwide peak in cases?

    19%
    chance
    M$ 344 pool

    How many likes (x 0.5) will I get on my upcoming post "Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolone!"?

    40%
    chance
    M$ 463 pool

    Will Tyler Cowen consider Richard Hanania to have fallen in status as a result of the events in Russia-Ukraine?

    34%
    chance